IATA Warns Global SAF Mandates Are Failing as 2025 Output Falls Short | By Dominick Andoh
Poorly designed EU and UK policies driving up fuel prices, slowing production, and forcing airlines to reconsider 2030 green targets, IATA says.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has issued a stark warning that global efforts to scale up Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production are faltering, with poorly structured government mandates, especially in Europe and the UK, pushing up costs and choking supply growth at a critical moment for aviation decarbonisation.
New data released by IATA shows that global SAF output is expected to reach 1.9 million tonnes (Mt) in 2025, doubling the 1 Mt produced in 2024. However, growth will slow sharply in 2026, reaching only 2.4 Mt, representing just 0.8% of global jet fuel demand.
Despite its climate benefits, SAF remains significantly more expensive than conventional fuel, with prices ranging from double to five times higher in markets with SAF mandates. This cost gap will impose an additional USD 3.6 billion burden on airlines in 2025 alone.
IATA has revised its SAF outlook downward, citing a major policy failure. “SAF production growth fell short of expectations as poorly designed mandates stalled momentum in the fledgling SAF industry,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General. “If the goal of SAF mandates was to slow progress and increase prices, policymakers knocked it out of the park.”
EU and UK Policies Under Fire
IATA says the European Union’s ReFuelEU Aviation mandate has sharply inflated fuel prices without guaranteeing supply. Airlines are now paying as much as five times the price of conventional fuel, driven by limited SAF capacity and what the association describes as “oligopolistic supply chains.”
In the UK, SAF obligations have also triggered sudden price spikes, leaving airlines to absorb billions in additional operating costs. In total, airlines paid a USD 2.9 billion premium for the limited SAF available in 2025.
“Europe’s fragmented policies distort markets, slow investment, and undermine efforts to scale SAF production,” Walsh said, calling for urgent regulatory reform.
Airlines May Miss 2030 SAF Commitments
IATA cautioned that sluggish production means many carriers may be unable to meet their publicly stated target of using 10% SAF by 2030. “These commitments were made in good faith but simply cannot be delivered,” Walsh noted.
Concerns Rising Over Upcoming e-SAF Mandates
The industry also fears that upcoming e-SAF mandates—set to begin in the UK in 2028 and the EU in 2030—risk repeating the same policy mistakes. e-SAF could cost up to 12 times as much as traditional jet fuel, and without strong incentives, supply will fall drastically short of mandated levels. Compliance penalties could soar to EUR 29 billion by 2032.
Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Chief Economist, warned: “Given the low SAF production volumes, it is evident that current policies are not having the desired effect… It is outrageous to repeat the same mistakes with e-SAF mandates.”
As the global aviation industry races toward net-zero by 2050, IATA stresses that governments must shift from mandates to meaningful incentives if they expect supply to grow and prices to fall.
IATA Warns Global SAF Mandates Are Failing as 2025 Output Falls Short | Send all enquiries and press releases to AviationGhana.info@gmail.com
